On July 30, OHA released its latest COVID-19 forecast, which projected sharply higher COVID-19 associated hospitalizations and daily cases through Aug. 17.  

According to the model, the effective reproduction rate, meaning the expected number of secondary cases that a single case generates, was estimated at 1.58 through July 14, which is more than double the 0.74 reported through mid-June.  

If transmission remains at the same level over the next two weeks, daily cases would continue to rapidly increase to 390 cases per 100,000 people. That’s an estimated 1,170 daily cases and 95 new hospitalizations per day.  

At that same level of transmission, over the next two weeks, daily cases would continue to rapidly increase to 390 cases per 100,000 people, or an estimated 1,170 daily cases and 95 new hospitalizations per day. 

Also, according to the report, even if the Delta variant grew to comprise 95% of new cases, the adoption of protective measures such as wearing masks and avoiding large gatherings, would curb the projected increase in hospitalizations and daily cases.  

“Today’s modeling report, although sobering, confirms the importance of protecting ourselves and others by getting vaccinated against COVID-19,” Dr. Dean Sidelinger, State Public Health Officer and Epidemiologist, said. “By vaccinating more people, we can more quickly drive down hospitalizations and new cases. 

Watch Dr. Sidelinger talk about how to protect yourself from the Delta variant by clicking on the screenshot below. You can find the full modeling report here.   

This article first appeared in the July 30, 2021 issue of Oregon Coronavirus Update.